{"id":2358272,"date":"2020-05-07T09:33:42","date_gmt":"2020-05-07T13:33:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.futurity.org\/?p=2358272"},"modified":"2020-05-07T09:33:42","modified_gmt":"2020-05-07T13:33:42","slug":"coronavirus-economic-forecast-2358272-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.futurity.org\/coronavirus-economic-forecast-2358272-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Economic forecaster gauges our post-pandemic future"},"content":{"rendered":"

An economic forecaster offers insights into the economic fallout from the pandemic.<\/p>\n

How many people will contract coronavirus this month? How will the stock market perform next quarter? Will you need an umbrella on Saturday? Given enough information, experts can build forecasting models to predict just about anything.<\/p>\n

But even the best models are only as good as the data that are fed into them. That’s why Rajeev Dhawan<\/a>, chair of economic forecasting and director of the Economic Forecasting Center<\/a> at Georgia State’s J. Mack Robinson College of Business, spends a lot of time analyzing raw numbers to figure out the “signal-to-noise ratio.”<\/p>\n

“In academic research, we tend to take data for granted,” he says. “My job is to separate the data that’s useful from the data that’s irrelevant or, worse, jamming up the signal with misleading information.”<\/p>\n

“The pandemic is accelerating trends that were happening already.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

For example, at the beginning of each month the state of Georgia releases the amount of sales tax collected during the previous month. Although the state was shut down for 15 days in March, the report released in early April showed no significant decline in sales tax receipts.<\/p>\n

“Did we spend so much in the first 15 days that we made it up? Common sense backed by observation says that’s unlikely,” says Dhawan. “The reality is that in March, retailers make payments on sales tax collected in the month of February. Knowing this timing detail is important if you want to really understand what’s happening in the state’s economy. To gauge the damage from the shutdown in March, you need to see the May report.”<\/p>\n

Dhawan’s expertise as an economic forecaster has been in high demand during what is perhaps the most uncertain time<\/a> in a century. Here, he discusses his perspective on the economic fallout<\/a> from the COVID-19 pandemic and how he believes the next few months could play out:<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

An economic forecaster offers insights into the economic fallout from the pandemic. How many people […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10492,"featured_media":2358362,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"quote","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13,14,5],"tags":[278,185622,473,300,2676],"class_list":["post-2358272","post","type-post","status-publish","format-quote","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured","category-health-medicine","category-society-culture","tag-business","tag-covid-19","tag-economics","tag-money","tag-prediction","post_format-post-format-quote","university-georgia-state-university"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nEconomic forecaster gauges our post-pandemic future - 糖心视频<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Economic forecaster Rajeev Dhawhan offers his perspective on the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic and how he thinks the next few months could play out.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.futurity.org\/coronavirus-economic-forecast-2358272-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Economic forecaster gauges our post-pandemic future\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Economic forecaster Rajeev Dhawhan offers his perspective on the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic and how he thinks the next few months could play out.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.futurity.org\/coronavirus-economic-forecast-2358272-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"糖心视频\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/糖心视频\/143906865226\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-05-07T13:33:42+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.futurity.org\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/economic_forecaster_1600.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1600\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"915\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Jennifer Rainey Marquez-Georgia State\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@糖心视频News\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@糖心视频News\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Jennifer Rainey Marquez-Georgia State\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.futurity.org\/coronavirus-economic-forecast-2358272-2\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.futurity.org\/coronavirus-economic-forecast-2358272-2\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Jennifer Rainey Marquez-Georgia State\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.futurity.org\/#\/schema\/person\/5234c0af80402ac24708ac3c4057d51b\"},\"headline\":\"Economic forecaster gauges our post-pandemic future\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-05-07T13:33:42+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.futurity.org\/coronavirus-economic-forecast-2358272-2\/\"},\"wordCount\":330,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.futurity.org\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.futurity.org\/coronavirus-economic-forecast-2358272-2\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.futurity.org\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/economic_forecaster_1600.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"business\",\"COVID-19\",\"economics\",\"money\",\"prediction\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Featured\",\"Health and Medicine\",\"Society and Culture\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.futurity.org\/coronavirus-economic-forecast-2358272-2\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.futurity.org\/coronavirus-economic-forecast-2358272-2\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.futurity.org\/coronavirus-economic-forecast-2358272-2\/\",\"name\":\"Economic forecaster gauges our post-pandemic future - 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